'It is possible, as we’ve seen in many instances, to have storms in nearly every month of the year, so it’s time to adopt a definition that is more tied to the real world.' Back in drought 'I’ve always felt that both the beginning and ending boundaries are artificial since they’re not really tied to anything physical about the climate system,' he said. Mann, however, said climate change has the potential to upend many atmospheric norms, and we're already seeing storms form outside the usual window. Water woes: Could it take a hurricane to pull Eastern NC out of its stubborn drought? Sand castles?: North Topsail is getting millions for beach nourishment. Davis said atmospheric conditions are also generally less conducive for storm formation in the fall, including the southern dip of the jet stream in the northern hemisphere as the weather cools. With most climatologists predicting a warmer future to mean more frequent and potentially stronger tropical systems in coming years, should the start and end dates of hurricane season be tweaked?īetween 20, a named storm formed in the Atlantic every year prior to the 'official' June 1 start of hurricane season.īut the bulk of storm activity still occurs in August and September. La Nina usually brings warmer temperatures and drier than normal conditions to the Southeastern U.S. If La Nina does continue through winter 2022 as predicted, it would represent this century's first 'triple dip' event spanning three consecutive northern hemisphere winters, according to the World Meteorological Organization. 'We have published other work suggesting that the future will not only be warmer but also more La Nina-like in character, which would imply increasingly active seasons.' 'The same statistical model we’ve used so successfully to predict seasonal storm totals shows that both warming and La Nina conditions lead to more active seasons,' he said via email. Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, said La Nina conditions, which are expected to continue through Christmas, generally mean more storm activity tending to extend into late fall. 'Even though we've already had our first freeze of the season across most of North Carolina, the sea surface temperatures in the heart of the Gulf Stream not far off our coast are still around 80 degrees Fahrenheit, which is still warm enough to support tropical development,' Davis said.Īs ocean heat content continues to increase due to climate change, that could provide the petri dish for more frequent or even more intense storms later in hurricane season, which runs June 1 through November.ĭr. One reason we see fall storms is because the ocean, like a battery charged by the summer sun for months, retains heat for long periods. Super storms?: In a warming world, 'Cat 6' hurricanes could soon be coming to a coast near youīut the storm already has a large footprint, and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting 'widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, rip currents and beach erosion' for much of the Southeastern U.S. Subtropical Storm Nicole: What we can expect along the NC coast

The current forecast is calling for Nicole to loop back around and hit the Florida panhandle before heading toward coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. That's when things could get interesting for residents of the Southeastern U.S., including North Carolina, heading into the weekend.

The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, with sustained winds over 39 mph, before strengthening even more into a hurricane and striking the northern Bahamas.Īccording to the current models, Nicole will then rip across the midsection of Florida as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane on Thursday before reemerging into the Gulf of Mexico. Officials are warning residents of Eastern North Carolina, especially those who live at the coast, to prepare for heavy rains and winds later this week after the National Hurricane Center early Monday upgraded a weather system east of the Bahamas to Subtropical Storm Nicole.

Watch Video: Southeast prepares for new tropical development in the AtlanticĮven as folks drive past lingering Halloween decorations and prepare for the upcoming Thanksgiving Day feast, Mother Nature has a friendly reminder: We're still in hurricane season despite leaves falling off the trees and most of North Carolina having experienced its first freeze.

Nicole spaghetti models